Abstract：AbstractThe simulation of the future evolution of the debris population can be used to assess the efficacy of proposed mitigation actions and of current behaviours. This work will look at how the debris environment would evolve if the current behaviour is extrapolated into the future. A data-driven approach based on the analysis of historical trends in launch traffic, explosions, and disposal practices is applied to define such extrapolated scenario. This case is then compared to a reference scenario (e.g. one with no-future-launches or with strict compliance to the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee guidelines), set here as a proxy for a sustainable environment and used to compare how far the current space activity is from such target.The analysis of the generated long-term simulation scenario is presented in terms not only of the number of objects, but also of their consumption of the space environmental capacity, to reflect that the criticality of scenarios with the same number of objects may be very different, depending on the type of objects, their location, their manoeuvrability status. The application of the capacity approach, based on a risk metric computed for each single mission in the environment, shows interesting results both in terms of highlighting difference among the simulated scenarios and also enables the definition of thresholds in terms of debris risk level that could be applied to enhance current mitigation guidelines.
KeyWord：Space traffic management;Space debris index;Mitigation guidelines;Space debris environment;

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