Abstract：Regulators worldwide introduce measures to improve energy consumption and reduce greenhouse emissions of road vehicles. The present study focuses on the impacts of passenger car carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and fuel efficiency measures, attempting to evaluate their effectiveness using vehicle and fleet modelling. To obtain a robust counterfactual result, two regions are compared as a case study: the European Union (EU), where CO 2 emissions have been regulated for over fifteen years, and Australia, a region that recently introduced such a policy element. The average difference in the certified CO 2 emissions of new cars registered in the two regions increased from 50 g/km in 2018 to 60 g/km in 2021 due to accelerated electrification in the EU. To demonstrate the importance of mandatory targets, a sensitivity analysis of the 2020 EU registrations showed that lower by one-third sales of zero and low-emission vehicles (Z-L-EVs) would have resulted in seven out of ten manufacturer pools failing to meet the 2020 target of 95 g/km. The simulation framework was validated against certified values of 2021 registrations and was subsequently used to calculate real-world fleet performance to quantify the actual emissions savings. The real-world CO 2 emissions in the registered fleets for 2021 were estimated to be 143 g/km and 204 g/km, for the EU and Australia, respectively. With these results as a reference, the share of ZEVs required to meet the targets set in both regions is calculated: 51% of the new registrations in 2030 in the EU for achieving 49.5 g/km, and 60% in Australia for recently set target of 58 g/km for 2029. The respective calculated average fleet-wide real-world tailpipe CO 2 emissions were estimated to be 66 g/km (EU) and 77 g/km (Australia). As a last step, the study discusses the application of similar tools and analysis in the design of future policies.
KeyWord：Light-vehicle; Energy efficiency; CO2 emissions; Regulation; Australia; EU;
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